That said, a strong fiscal stimulus and ample foreign aid will support the economy this year.Īnalysts at the EIU commented on the outlook: In addition, uncertainty over the Black Sea Grain Initiative will cap the recovery in exports. Agricultural production will also come under pressure from the war due to weaker plantings and an expected weaker harvest the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in early June will likely dampen activity in the sector further. With most industrial activity carried out in the eastern part of the country-which has faced some of the heaviest damage-manufacturing output will remain subdued. However, the outlook for the year ahead remains uncertain, and risks are skewed to the downside. Meanwhile, on a sequential basis, economic activity rebounded: GDP grew by 2.4% quarter on quarter in Q1, up from Q4 2022’s 4.7%.įollowing Q1’s better-than-expected reading, the economy is now projected to bounce back in year-on-year terms from Q2 onwards. Nevertheless, Ukraine’s economy continued to be plagued by Russia’s invasion, remaining in contractionary territory. Moreover, improving consumer sentiment, softer price pressures and rebounding merchandise imports point to firming private spending. Ukraine GDP GDP declines at a softer pace in the first quarterĪccording to a preliminary estimate, GDP contracted at a slower pace of 10.5% year on year in the first quarter of 2023, improving from the 31.4% decline seen in the fourth quarter of last year.Ībsent a sector-by-sector breakdown, the smaller drop in activity likely came on the back of a less-pronounced deterioration in the external sector, with merchandise exports declining 23.2% in Q1 (Q4: -43.4%).
0 kommentar(er)
